Election thoughts

I don't have much to offer in the way of specific diagnoses of the 2004 election; it's amazong how close Kerry came against a sitting President during a war, and I suspect one analysis I heard on C-SPAN yesterday, to the effect that 51% was the upper bound of Bush's potential share of the popular vote, is spot-on. It's far less of a mandate than the administration is claiming, but it's not like strategeric exaggerations are anything new for this administration. I'm glad that there were no large voting irregularities or problems, I remain confident that I voted for the better man, and I'm truly proud to have voted for John Kerry.

That said, I think two of the best and most sober analyses of the election I've read are this one by Kevin Drum and this one by Josh Marshall. I also think much of the hand-wringing that this is somehow the end of the Democratic party is premature (though it may also be what kicks the party's ass into gear for 2008). Bush's coalition is a pretty precarious one, and there's no clear heir apparent for the next time around; Cheney has said he has no interest in running (cue dusted-off Howard Baker Chief of Staff joke here) and there just aren't that many names that spring readily to mind who could appeal to evangelicals in the same way Bush does. (Snark: Perhaps he'll thank them by actually going to church some time.)

As readers of this blog probably know, I'm working on a PhD in political science. The day after the election, several dozen faculty and grad students met to discuss the election. And after about an hour of kibbitzing about turnout, demographics, exit polls, and the like, a student from China got in the last word. He told us about a discussion he'd had with his landlady, who lamented the Supreme Court decision that gave us Bush in 2000. His response was along the lines of:

Your Supreme Court made a bad decision. But the Supreme Court has made bad decisions before. And that bad decision wasn't as bad as Dred Scot or Korematsu. And we have another election this year. That's a wonderful and precious thing and you should all cherish the mere fact that you were able to vote and will be able to vote again.

And, finally, Ken Layne has been on an entertaining rampage that will satisfy the most bloodthirsty Democrat. He also links to this map which is, frankly, chilling when compared to the 2004 electoral map.