My own hunch is that undecided Catholics have been repulsed by the way in which the hierarchy has intervened in this election, and the outrageous notion that voting for one candidate can amount to a sin worthy of confession. Catholics know what is appropriate in politics, they know how they feel about the moral standing of the current hierarchy, and they can vote freely in a secular democracy.
Which is a good point. But I think there's more to it than that. My ears perked up during the third debate when Kerry described the decision to have an abortion as one between (paraphrasing here) "a woman, her doctor, and God." I suspect that the addition of God into the mix did a lot to make Catholic voters who are uncomfortable and uneasy about both the legality of abortion and the cost a ban would have (since making it illegal wouldn't stop abortions, it would just mean messier, uglier, more dangerous ones) see Kerry in a new light; I think he spoke to the deeply conflicted feelings many Catholics -- among whom I suspect many of the teachers I had in 17 years of Catholic education are included -- have on the issue, and gave them a reassurance that he saw a moral dimension to the question that many previous Democratic candidates have seemed to miss.
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