Saturday, November 04, 2006

Election predictions

A few weeks ago, I made my picks in a friendly election prediction pool. Since the election is just a few days away, I thought I'd share my picks, my current thoughts about those decisions, and then, after the election, I can come back and review how I did. Here they are, broken down by type of race, with the Republican listed first in each listing.

Senate races:

AZ: Jon Kyl v. Jim Pederson
I picked Kyl and still would today, though I'd love to see this be the sleeper surprise of the election season.

CT: Alan Schlesinger v. Ned Lamont v. Joe Liberman
Sadly, I think Lieberman is still going to win this thing. Lamont doesn't seem to have gotten any traction since the primary.

FL: Harris v. Nelson
Nelson has maintained a 20-30 point lead throughout the entire campaign and could probably molest a goat on the steps of the state legislature and still win by a landslide. The only reason I included this race in the pool is because Katherine Harris losing by 20 or more points is really, really, really funny, because she is completely fucking batshit insane.

MD: Steele v. Cardin
Cardin. I just can't see Steele winning this thing, even though some polls have it tightening up.

MI: Bouchard v. Stabenow

MN: Kennedy v. Klobuchar
Klobuchar. Won't even be close. The good news is that we'll be rid of Gussie Fink-Nottle's Minnesotan cousin; the bad news is that his replacement is likely to be almost as batshit fucking insane as Katherine Harris.

MO: Talent v. McCaskill
I picked Talent three weeks ago, pre-Michael J. Fox. Now I might pick McCaskill. Neither then nor now would I feel a great deal of confidence in that choice; this race has been a dead heat for so long it's agonizing just to watch. I can't imagine what it's like for the candidates.

MT: Burns v. Tester
Tester then, Tester now.

NV: Ensign v. Carter
Ensign, then and now. This would have been uphill no matter what, but Carter's hospitalization early this fall took this one way out of contention.

NJ: Kean v. Menendez
Menendez, though this one may be uncomfortably close. In any other year, Kean would probably have a real shot. But this isn't any other year.

OH: DeWine v. Brown
Brown then, Brown now. DeWine is, electorally speaking, a dead man walking.

PA: Santorum v. Casey
Casey then, Casey now. Good-bye, Ricky!

RI: Chafee v. Whitehouse

TN: Corker v. Ford
I picked Ford but I think it's increasingly unlikely that he'll win, as much as I'd like to see that. If I were making the decision with money at stake today, I'd pick Corker.

VT: Tarrant v. Sanders
Sanders then, Sanders now.

VA: Allen v. Webb
I picked Webb because I can't bring myself to vote for Allen for anything, ever. That said, I'd make the same call today and with more confidence than I did a month before election day. Fingers crossed on this one.

WA: McGavick v. Cantwell
Cantwell. And I'll use McGavick's incompetent attempt to get his skeletons out of the closet as an example of how not to inoculate voters against negative information in every political psychology class I teach until I retire.


AR: Hutchison v. Beebe

CA: Schwarzenegger v. Angelides
Schwarzenegger. Hell, if I lived in CA and could be reasonable sure Arnold 3.0 would stick around, I'd be tempted to vote for him.

IA: Nussle v. Culver

MD: Ehrlich v. O'Malley
O'Malley, though with less confidence now than then.

MI: DeVos v. Granholm
Granholm, with more confidence now than then.

MN: Pawlenty v. Hatch v. Hutchinson
I think Pawlenty pulls it out, because I have no confidence in the DFL not to screw up a statewide race.

OH: Blackwell v. Strickland
Strickland. 'bye, Ken.

OR: Saxton v. Kulongoski
Kulongoski holds on.

PA: Swann v. Rendell
Rendell. Won't even be close.

RI: Carcieri v. Fogarty
Then: Fogarty. Now: Carcieri will squeak by.

SC: Sanford v. Moore

TX: Perry v. Bell v. Strayhorn v. Friedman
Included only for the novelty factor of Kinky Friedman. Perry.

WI: Green v. Doyle
Doyle hangs on.

House - This was a pretty nonscientific sampling of likely-to-be-close races.

CT-4: Shays v. Farrell
Farrell, more confidently now than then.

ID-1: Sali v. Grant
Grant, more confidently now than then.

IL-8: McSweeney v. Bean

IN-2: Chocola v. Donnelly
The Count is out. Donnelly.

KY-4: Davis v. Lucas

MN-6: Bachman v. Wetterling
Bachman then, Bachman now, though I'm deeply unhappy about it. Wetterling couldn't capitalize on the Foley scandal hard enough to win this.

NC-11: Taylor v. Shuler
Shuler wins something for once. More confidence now than then.

NY-26: Reynolds v. Davis
I picked Davis at the height of Foley. Had I done more research, I would have found out that Davis is a 73-year-old ex-Republican who refuses to campaign or advertise. Reynolds holds on.

PA-7: Weldon v. Sestak
Crazy Curt is toast. And that's deeply satisfying on a personal level.

PA-10: Sherwood v. Carney
The Scranton Strangler is gone. Carney then, Carney now.

We'll see how I did Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

No comments: