Monday, January 19, 2004

My utterly unscientific, uninformed, seat-of-my-pants prediction for the Iowa caucuses:

1. Kerry
2. Dean
3. Gephardt
4. Edwards

Percentages? Damn, I'm not THAT stupid. I suspect that the really important thing will be how far apart the results are. If all of these guys are bunched around 22%, it's a dead heat going into New Hampshire, with Clark as the wild card there. If Kerry pulls far away, bad news for Gephardt and Edwards. If Edwards does really well, he might hand on until South Carolina, which would be good for him and -- since I find him one of the most appealing guys running -- good for us, too. For Dean, it's all about the expectations; if he does anything but finish first he's going to need to spin like hell to stay alive.

No comments: