Tuesday, January 27, 2004

Seat-of-my-pants New Hampshire predictions, no numbers, in order of finish: Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Liberman, Clark, with Kucinich and Sharpton barely getting asterisks. Yep, I'm Mr. Wild Prediction today...

Assuming Kerry wins, the real question will be how close Dean comes to him. If it's tight, Dean's still in this; if it's a blowout, Dean's in trouble. And if Edwards manages a significant second place finish -- that is, if he's way out ahead of Dean, or as close to Kerry as he was in Iowa, or both -- Dean's in deep, deep trouble. That's a technical term.

And if Clark and Lieberman fare poorly, we'll see how long their campaign deathwatches are. If Arkansas didn't have two Democratic Senators already, I'd say that I wouldn't be surprised to see Clark make a run in a few years.

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